Look at this chart of the California tech number of employed employment index (indexed to 100 at the first Yield curve inversion) relative to the 2000s dot com bubble; and layoffs haven’t even stopped yet. Recession incoming. #layoff #severance
Why does the red light starting point not start at the highest level?
High unemployment is a lagging indicator. Note, I’m actually not a crash bro that always thinks the sky is falling. That said, we have a longer ways to go. We haven’t even gone through the phase where businesses have to compete on price yet to win back market share.
What about the drop in EV prices? Tesla is eating their margin to maintain market share and cope with over supply.
@Lacework that’s just normal Tesla was mostly competing alone in the ev market for a few years. Now every company has an EV. You can have cheaper models like Kia and Hyundai and more luxurious like Audi, bmw, … the car market is a very competitive one and Tesla had an impossible task against the big companies
the recession already happened, president brandon pressured his economists to just change the definition 🤪
If the recession already happened, I am happy to stay in that definition of "recession" forever more than the "exploding" economy of fartold trump's era . No complaints.
“Two quarters of GDP decline.” It happened in 2022 or 2023, and then the white house put out a message of “maybe we should be considering other metrics too.” Really? We’ve been using that definition for decades, and we’ve suddenly decided there’s more to it because it’s a bad look for whatever administration?
There was no de-dollarization in 2000.
de-dollarization is a boogeyman myth I see nothing in forex markets that would give credit to ongoing de-dollarization. on the other hand, feds are putting out hawk-ish messages, which naturally dampens the labor market—just as they did in 2000 and every other fed-incited recession
You need to look at the geopolitical chessboard and the repo market. The forex market is a fake Bretton Woods video game.
I really hate how the media keeps portraying how awesome and great the job market is and how much growth there is.
The overall job market and the tech job market are not the same thing. Most jobs are not tech jobs.
That’s true.
Bidenomics at work
Yeah it's been bad. Just remember this going forward and never be loyal to any employer ever again. Some of these companies were even profitable and still laid off just to rehire for the same positions or leave teams understaffed. Understand what these companies are and treat them accordingly going forward.
I never understood why anyone would be loyal to any employer.
I've heard of the before times when people would stay at a company for decades and retire with a pension and 401k, but it's only a legend. Nothing like that exists anymore (at least in the tech industry), so that incentive no longer exists.
But housing prices keep going up
housing market is unrelated to the labor market and stock market they were connected in 2007 because the housing market crash was so severe that it caused the other two to crash
I guess it's not tech workers buying homes then
Do you have the original source/URL for the chart? I searched the title and explored MacroEdge's site but couldn't find it. Thanks.
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There are still many startups that haven't run out of money yet but don't have a viable business. More will come this year and next.
Do you really think they are gonna do layoff a month before they run out off money? The ones who in a red zone already did their layoffs a long time ago. Now mostly public companies will do this, to meet investors expectations.
Yes Tinder. That happens often times that you would imagine.