You forgot "it's complicated" option
Last year the unsolicited contacts from recruiters stopped copmletely. This year they are back again. 2021-2022 was insanely hot. That might never happen again.
It is complicated for sure. keep grinding. Also, I use autoapplypro, it helped me get some calls.
https://www.trueup.io/job-trend Up 30% from last year, but still less than 55% from peak.
This looks legit