Here are my arguments. None of these in isolation mean anything, they’re all just indicators. Large CEO bonuses implies his targets were met. If his targets included ex. “Reduce workforce but 40k”, he would not be close and would not get paid out. If his goal was ex. “Reduce workforce by 20k”, he would be 1 round away from done and already submitted proposals to the board. Earnings were not missed by much in Q4, earnings are expected to barley miss in Q1 and in general tech reports for Q1 are positive so far. The main loser was YouTube, mainly due to TikTok absorbing market share. TikTok is facing possible bans which gives investors hope & pushes content creators off the app. Creators were already moving away from TikTok due to their poor payout system which only promoted children and boomers to make content. Serious good creators are moving to YouTube, Instagram, or their own thing (movies, etc) Stock is climbing Buzz for chat GPT is dying quickly and media is saturated. It’s no longer buzzy and interesting and people are realizing it can’t replace search in its current form, and the flaws from preventing it to do so aren’t close to being solved (an LLM is isolation never can. Needs to be augmented with some way to verify truthness which is not close to solved at scale) In general, in the analysts expect exactly 1 more. Also most bearish analysts only wanted a 25-35k headcount reduction, we’re 1/2-1/3 there and those are the bears. The bulls think we’re done or only a few K need to go. Average it out and we can expect 1 more. Google is viewed as stable. Layoffs harm that reputation long term and 4 years from now it would like to say it protected its staff during hard times All indicators are weak in isolation and individually can be attacked, but enough smoke gives me hope Tc: 280
How does a global recession play into this analysis? How about the rise in automation and productivity for software workers?
Hiring ramp up will be measured for next few years hopefully to account for productivity improvements through AI
I agree with the arguments but I don’t think the conclusion logically follows. There’s less pressure, sure, but I don’t know that we can say with any certainty what amount of layoffs there will be in the short term or long term for that matter. If the previous layoff is any indication, then all we know is that Google can layoff 10k plus on a random Friday with no advance warning.
“Buzz for chat GPT is dying quickly and media is saturated.” LOL.
You think it’s in nearly as many headlines as it was a month ago? If so, cope. Also called the earnings prediction spot on. We missed but not by that much
You talk as if you are a board member at Google. Remember you are always a few clicks on a spreadsheet, away from saying “we (google)” to “them”. Wake up. You don’t own Google. I don’t own Amazon. Neither of us needs to take sides with the employers. We can switch places faster than day turns into night. On the topic at hand, chatgpt is not just or hype.
Another 10K layoffs and a 10K attrition from entitled googlers who are mad that Sundar got huge $$$ for his work as CEO.