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Recently Goldman published an article where it is claimed that they expect to see a 25% drop home prices in 4 cities. *San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and San Diego, California, will likely see boom-and-bust declines of more than 25%.* Link to the article : https://nypost.com/2023/01/24/goldman-sachs-sees-a-crash-for-home-values-in-these-4-cities/ One of the reaction to this article is in here : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wVWRTnd7dQ. He mentions that we have already seen that 25% ( on average ) drop since the peak. Two filters which he has added -> Did it for San Jose only ( specifically for Willow Glen ) -> Did it only for SFH ( probably not for condo's ) In the end he mentions that Goldman told us what we already know. Are we looking forward to another 10-25% from the January 2023 baseline? Read the related blind article : https://www.teamblind.com/post/Goldman-Sachs-San-Jose-Fremont-San-Diego-home-prices-to-crash-25-more-in-2023-uRUMhG8C after you have voted :). Another related blind thread https://www.teamblind.com/post/Bay-Area-home-prices-down-30-4AwRm7Fh One of the commentors provided this data point from redfin. Median sold price in San Jose has moved from $1.5M ( median ) to $1.18M ( median ). https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market (image below) #housing #bayarea #investment #recession #inflation #sanfrancisco
San Jose is sort of trash anyway, who cares? Move to Palo Alto
The way to calculate the house price in 2023 is to take the 2019 price and add a 4-5% annual growth to it. Anything above that will crash
Already happened. Homes that would have sold for 2.6M are now 20-25% off. I'm making an offer right now but will probably lose out to another techie. I suspect the price will go down further when I can't buy (aka laid off) so...
Any external link that you can point to add more weight to the claim? ( I have seen this 20% drop at realtor.com, but hoping to gather more data )
https://www.redfin.com/city/17420/CA/San-Jose/housing-market Look at SFH, 24% off from peak, but again this is the median price so the value could be due to investors dumping low value properties, but I've seen 15%-20% off from crazy peaks in the locations I am interested in.
Dumb
Luxury market is cratering. First time buyer houses and move up houses are still scarce. Good, upgraded ones are still seeing bids over asking and getting sold fast.
I don't get it why houses in Austin and surrounding areas Leander, Round Rock, Cedar Park are so expensive comparing to houses in Dallas or Houston
Isn't Austin literally the fastest growing city right now?
@Exit I think one of the reasons for Austin to grow fast because the living cost here is cheaper => companies open here to hire people at lower TC. But it is definitely not cheap anymore. And before covid it was also fast growing but you don't see the house price double. Houses that were 350k in 2019 is listing at over 600k now. But property tax rate didn't go down
Wasn't Goldman the bag holder of the apple credit card...
Where is the option “25% drop has happened and another 15% drop expected” ?
Dude that is a 2008 like crash 40% from the peak. You are saying ~37% in total? But this is not a housing specific recession. I guess I should have added an option saying that 25% crash hasn't happened and data shown was wrong.
25% crash from the peak of Apr 2022 has already happened.
The same ppl where predicting a increase last year They willl keep changing the narrative as and when things change around
We are just getting started, at least in Austin.