Like the title says. These are my hot takes for long-term health of a few FAANG companies. I'm not talking about in a year, but closer to 5-10+. "Uhh I would just job hop if things got bad" 🤓🤓 Okay do that if you like. Some of us wouldn't want to have something like "AOL" or "AskJeeves" on our resumes, when anyone with foresight would have seen them as a sinking ship by a point. --- Google - In trouble, plain and simple. OpenAI caught them with their pants down. Main revenue is ads. Google Assistant can't compare to ChatGPT, and the sort. They don't MAKE actual products that people love. Google clearly wants the most normal of normal people to take Android seriously, as shown by them trying to ditch the geeky stereotype. Instead, they have a hard time selling Pixel shit to both groups. A saving grace is the NSA contract they have for 10 years. Meta - LOL. Meta also in trouble. Money will keep flowing in the style that Microsoft did a decade+ ago, by just buying everything up. Overall, their flagship product is cringe. It's a dead horse at this point. Facebook is a shambling corpse, and Instagram is beginning to show that it's not cool anymore. TikTok getting orbital striked by law is the only chance. Apple - Solid for a while, but falling off in the most painful way. Their products are desirable, seen as luxuries, and generally great. But the leeches keep trying to pull them down (EU courts, Google whining about RCS, etc). They need a new must-have product, but I dont think advertising is a good realm for them to go into. Their image is more valuable than short term gains. Amazon - Good cash flow products that people are addicted to, more or less. MUST have 2 day delivery, MUST watch on Amazon Prime Video, etc. Good cash flow guaranteed, and Government contracts for AWS is solid. AWS itself is rock steady. Big threats I can see is Government regulations coming for workers, deliveries, etc. My hands are tired, so drop hot takes and opinions on long term winners and losers. #amazon #apple #facebook #instagram #meta #google TC: 235k YoE: 14
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You telling me to find a job at Snapchat or Bart asap?
I would say no. I actually think TikTok will be banned. I don’t think meta will be the same superpower as it is now in 5-10 years.
Honestly Meta, we might be ok. Layoffs took off pressure, we might eat Twitter’s lunch and TikTok might be banned.
lol your analysis about Google is so off. You really think they haven’t done what OpenAI are doing? They couldn’t find a way to monetize it, hence never showed it to the public. Google trawls the web and collects data on a scale that makes OpenAI look like an infant. My prediction? Once OpenAI finds a way to monetize GPT3+, Google will come in and roll them over.
Too many googlers coasting tho
I agree with @comdoramzn Gone are the days of Google being “that data science company” that was worthy of a (very cringe) movie about getting hired there. Now it’s… advertising, a lukewarm mobile OS, an AI that they’re more concerned about guaranteeing isn’t racist, and a few VERY well paid coasters. Imo the biggest waste is an engineer being paid over 7 figures, coasting because the company has nothing groundbreaking for them to do, and they’re simply being paid to not go elsewhere.
Amazon’s retail side has a few cracks. Namely the proliferation of overseas manufacturing companies churning out ghost brands and flooding entire product categories with so much mid-tier quality crap. I use to probably spend $3000-5000 a year on Amazon but I think I’ve maybe only spent $200 this year. Actually in the process of returning $100. Same issue with Wayfair tbh.
You don’t want a QUIXFUOP brand™️ bed frame, that’s mysteriously similar to the 操我的屁股 brand that’s on Alibaba???
I actually just bought a suit jacket from KTOKPFANG COOL or something. One the sleeves fell off taking it out of the bag.
Even if they collapse tomorrow, nobody’s going to judge you for not foreseeing that, lol
Your career is kind of already fucked if you don’t job hop so choose a random place with good wlb and decent financials I guess
Blind makes people dumber sometimes.
FTC/EU put the hammer down on Meta being able to grow through acquisition. They can’t even buy a GIF keyboard or obscure metaverse startup now.
That’s news to me. Damn that’s brutal.
Where's Netflix?
I ran out of time. I’m government, so my shift ends at the exact second it ends. I was out the door, on the dot.
Good for you 😍
TBH, your take reads as someone who has only understood the surface level of most of these companies. But, this far from being anywhere close to the ground reality for the parts that I am aware of. It isn't to say that these companies cannot fail. Quite the contrary, I am sure that they will fail, but in ways most of us won't know until it happens. Just take Meta for an example. User growth still happened this past year, so not a dying horse, but an alive and growing horse. Additionally, the company is heavily investing in the future. It will take 5 years to know if those investments will work out. But, it's hard to bet against the market leader for the next device category at this point.
There’s always internal projects, but if the overall health is bad, and nobody’s excited, that can mean a lot. I don’t buy a rusty car and say “WOW look at that kickass steering wheel!!”
Hmm, but I guess the point of my statement is that the car isn't rusty. The car isn't a Lamborghini anymore, but it is a good reliable car with stability. That car happens to be generating billions of dollars and those dollars are building the next lambo.
Microsoft taught us that big companies can turn around.
Not every company has Ballmer + Nadella combination.
I definitely admire Microsoft for clinging after the giant antitrust thing, and they’ve come back pretty hard. But I feel like their core business is faltering with how hard Valve is pushing non-windows gaming, iOS “gaming”, and the fact that nobody has really been liking their newest versions of windows. Azure also kinda isn’t doing the greatest. I’m trapped in that hell daily. It’s admirable that it’s competing with AWS on a feature level, but most people don’t know what azure is. Their hardware is also getting shat on by apple, which is sad. In 2015-2018, I was SO EXCITED at Microsoft’s new laptops and whatnot.